Within the fauna of human decisions, I have been particularly interested in understanding how and why we distort confidence, trust, conviction, beliefs. Why sometimes we trust blindly and others, instead, we doubt when the evidence is convincing? For example, when we go on a trip and we check over and over whether we carry the documents, as if they were going to vanish from their own will from where we left them a few seconds before.
With Ariel Zylberberg and Pablo Barttfeld we discovered that, from the simplest to the most sophisticated decisions, we jump into conclusions based on a small subset of the data. This is inevitable; no one can assimilate the entire universe of data. But the mistake we usually make is to act as if this subset of the data is all the information there is. And, hence, we inflate and distort trust.
We believe that this ubiquitous mechanism of human decisions may be at the core of why in some matters societies have become extremely polarized.
Confidence as Bayesian Probability: From Neural Origins to Behavior (NEURON PERSPECTIVE)
Variance misperception explains illusions of confidence in simple perceptual decisions (CONSCIOUSNESS AND COGNITION)
The construction of confidence in a perceptual decision (FRONTIERS IN INTEGRATIVE NEUROSCIENCE)